ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - In an unprecedented and surprising move, Kurdistan Region’s largest and oldest political entity, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), on Monday announced it would boycott long-overdue and contentious parliamentary elections. The United Nations (UN) has warned against further postponement of the vote and pundits say that this could exacerbate a political impasse in the Kurdish enclave and add fuel to intra-Kurdish and Erbil-Baghdad tensions.
The 77-year-old KDP has been the main winner of all elections in the Kurdistan Region and held most of the top positions since the establishment of the enclave three decades ago. It is dominant in the capital Erbil and Duhok province. So the party’s decision on Monday to not participate in one of the most significant polls in the Region is nothing less than a political earthquake that could be followed by many unwanted aftershocks.
While the decision was unexpected, it is understandable coming after intra-Kurdish issues resulted in multiple postponements of the election that led to the dissolution of the Kurdish parliament and a subsequent intervention by the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court, which, against the KDP’s will, last month ruled to eliminate minority seats in the Kurdish legislature and impose a four-constituency system on the June 10 vote.
The politburo of the KDP said that the court ruling was a continuation of its “unconstitutional rulings against the Kurdistan Region in the past four years,” labeling it “a clear and dangerous violation of the constitution” and an attempt to “return Iraq to a centralized system.”
The Federal Supreme Court was established immediately after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 before Iraqis voted on the country’s first democratic constitution. The KDP claims that the court is “unconstitutional” because its role and powers have not been instilled in the constitution. The party fears that the federal court could take further measures against the Kurdish region if no one stops it.
The KDP had 45 seats in the 111-seat Kurdish legislature before its dissolution by the federal court in May last year. The party had the support of all 11 quota seats allocated for Christians, Turkmens and Armenians. The unofficial and unannounced alliance had forged a majority in the parliament that passed some laws against the will of rival parties.
The KDP has been accused of exploiting the quota seats by opposition parties, including its main rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which has jointly governed the Region and has been dominant in Sulaimani province for the last three decades.
With their quota seats eliminated, most Turkmen and Chistian political parties announced that they would not take part in the election in protest against the court decision.
No more delays, says UN
Kurdistan Region’s general elections were originally slated for October 2022 but have been postponed several times. Earlier this month, President Nechirvan Barzani set June 10 as the latest date for the poll. Whenever a new date was set, the international community and the UN would warmly welcome the move and hope for a “smooth” election.
Whether the June date will hold is unknown because it is almost impossible to hold elections in Erbil and Duhok without the endorsement of the KDP due to its strong grip of power in these provinces. Additionally, if the election goes ahead, a KDP boycott could lead to an unprecedented low turnout, putting the legitimacy of the vote under question.
Another postponement is a strong possibility although Iraq's Independent Electoral High Commission (IHEC), which is undertaking the process, said hours after the KDP’s decision that their preparations for the polls were underway and no official request had been made to postpone them.
The PUK has said it would abide by the June 10 date, stressing that the vote should be held on time.
The KDP has refused to take part unless its conditions are met, including the restoration of quota seats and return to the single-constituency system.
The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) has repeatedly warned against the frequent delays in the Kurdish. The mission on Monday reacted to KDP’s decision and repeated its warning.
“We call on all parties to work in the interest of the people, and thus towards solutions, rather than another prolonged impasse. The holding of the 10 June KRI [Kurdistan Region of Iraq] elections is essential,” UNAMI said in a statement.
The KDP and PUK had been at odds about how the elections should be done, legitimacy of voter lists and revenue transparency for years. The quota seats were seen as a sticking point in the issue of elections.
Tamer Badawi, PhD researcher at the University of Kent, told Rudaw English on Monday that the KDP’s decision to boycott the upcoming polls “potentially deepens the stalemate with the PUK.” He said the PUK has two options - follow suit to avoid tensions with the KDP or take part in the vote to “prove its alignment” with Iraq’s ruling Shiite-dominated coalition.
Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani is expected to visit Washington next month. Badawi believes that the KDP wants to use the election boycott to create problems for Sudani’s visit.
US State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel told Rudaw that Washington is “concerned” about the KDP’s decision.
“We’re concerned by the KDP’s announcement. Our consistent position has been to support the conduct of and the full participation in free, fair, transparent, and credible elections,” he said. “We don’t think that boycotting these elections will serve the interests of the IKR [Iraqi Kurdistan Region], the Kurdish people, or Iraq in general.”
Alina Romanowski, US ambassador to Baghdad, later said in a vague post on X that all people of the Kurdistan Region “have a voice in determining their future.”
The KDP said in its Monday announcement that it “has always been an advocate for providing the principles and criteria for free and fair elections, which include, at least, the existence of a fair electoral law that guarantees the representation of all classes and communities of Kurdistan.”
Withdrawal from Baghdad
The KDP is one of the main members of the Shiite-led State Administration Coalition that rules Iraq.
The party on Monday threatened that it would not be able to continue in the political process in Baghdad if that ruling coalition does not uphold its national responsibilities of implementing the constitution and meeting the political and administrative agreements that were made during negotiations around forming the current government.
The KDP has over 30 seats in the Iraqi parliament and holds many senior positions, including foreign minister and deputy speaker of the legislature.
Khamis al-Khanjar, leader of the Sunni Sovereignty party, on Tuesday warned that the potential withdrawal of the KDP from the federal government would endanger the future of all of Iraq.
“The brothers in the Kurdistan Democratic Party going towards boycotting the local elections in the [Kurdistan] Region and threatening to leave the political process puts the future of the entire country in danger,” he said.
Muhsin al-Mandalawi, acting speaker of the Iraqi parliament, on Tuesday visited KDP President Masoud Barzani in Erbil.
Barzani and Mandalawi stressed that “a fair and constitutional election should be held which ensures the rights of all [ethnic and religious] components of the Kurdistan Region,” according to a statement from Barzani’s office.
Rudaw has learnt that the KDP is sending a delegation to Baghdad to discuss its concerns with its Iraqi allies and the governing authorities.
Financial woes
The KDP’s bombshell announcement comes as the Kurdistan Region is in a precarious state, especially financially. Erbil and Baghdad have been at odds over the Kurdish government’s share of the federal budget for years. Irregular funds from Baghdad have left the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in dire financial straits for over a decade, made worse in the past year with the halt of its oil exports. Erbil has made only one salary payment to its civil servants since October last year. It has also refused to receive the partial payment from the Iraqi government for February salaries, demanding the full amount.
Lack of cash in people’s pockets has almost killed the market, with many businesses closed or on the brink of closure. The financial crisis has also contributed to a dramatic drop in the real estate market.
Any escalation of tensions between the regional and federal government could increase the burden on Kurdistan Region’s people, many of whom are struggling to make ends meet.
Al Monitor reported earlier this month that Sudani is under “growing pressure” from Washington to resolve his government’s issues with Erbil.
Kamaran Palani is a Research Fellow at Middle East Research Institute (MERI). Reacting to the KDP’s decision, he said in a post on X that the move is “both risky and unexpected,” warning that it could further deteriorate “the uncertainty of the situation” in the Kurdistan Region.
“The KDP believes there is a collective plot against it led by Iran and its allies in Baghdad,” he added.
KDP’s relations with Tehran were damaged after Iranian ballistic missiles killed a Kurdish businessman in Erbil in January, alleging that he was linked to Mossad - a claim strongly denied by Erbil and Baghdad.
Pro-Iran militia groups were targeting US interests in Erbil with one-way weaponized drones and rockets for several months, linking it to Washington’s support for Israel in its war in Gaza.
Legitimacy under threat
Shaswar Abdulwahid, leader of the opposition New Generation Movement, claimed in a post on X that the “absence of elections is a deliberate attempt to erase the Kurdistan Region from its existence.”
“A flawed election is still preferable to no election at all,” he noted.
The legitimacy of the Kurdistan Region’s institutions have been questioned by some opposition parties since the initial delay of the election. The New Generation Movement describes the current cabinet as a “caretaker” one.
Mohammed A. Salih, Senior Fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), said in a post on X that a lack of elections will “adversely affect Kurdistan’s political development, legitimacy and future.”
He elaborated that “this move will create an impasse that could last years & hard to break.”
Ali Hama Saleh is an outspoken former parliamentarian. He said the current KRG cabinet’s legitimacy has ended and the Region does not have a parliament, warning that further delay of the polls will worsen the political impasse.
“If transparent polls are not held on time, Iraq and other countries will treat the Kurdistan Region and its authorities in a different way. This will take the lives of people and the status of the Kurdistan Region as an entity to a more difficult stage. A historical responsibility falls upon the party which wants to make obstacles for the elections,” he said, referring to the KDP.
Saleh on Tuesday was chosen as the head of the newly-established National Stance Movement, which includes some of his dissident friends.
He told Rudaw after his appointment that he believes elections will be held and the KDP will reverse its boycott decision and warned that if the KDP does not, it will pay a “heavier” price than the one it did in 2017 when it spearheaded the independence referendum that led to the Kurdistan Region losing control of large amounts of territory, including Kirkuk.
‘Watershed moment’
Aziz Ahmad, Deputy Chief of Staff to KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, said in a post on X that the KDP’s boycott of the election and potential withdrawal from the Iraqi political process is a turning point for Iraq.
“A watershed moment for the country as the KDP withdraws from upcoming elections in Kurdistan and considers an outright exit from Iraq's political process,” he said. “It could imperil the very model of a federal Iraq that we voluntarily embraced in 2003.”
“Predictable and preventable,” he concluded.
KDP President Masoud Barzani has played a key role in forming previous cabinets of the Iraqi government and his veto on certain candidates for Iraq’s senior positions were taken into consideration.
The threat to withdraw from Iraq’s political process worked for Kurds before 2017 when they were considered kingmakers. However, after Kurds held an independence referendum that year and subsequently lost more than half of the territory they controlled to Iraqi troops and pro-Iran militia groups, their leverage dropped.
The KDP boycotted Iraq’s parliamentary elections in disputed areas in Kirkuk and Nineveh province, but it did not affect the general electoral process.
Rebwar Babkayi, the head of KDP’s Soran branch, told Rudaw on Tuesday that his party has considered all consequences of its boycott decision and that further steps will be taken in the future, though he did not elaborate.
“Definitely, we have analyzed our next few steps but they will be announced when needed,” he noted.
He denied claims that the KDP fears losing votes from an electorate that is struggling to survive in a financial crisis and said that they would secure the same or more seats if they take part in the June 10 election.
Hemn Hawrami, a member of the KDP politburo, said on Tuesday that he held separate meetings with the consul generals of most countries in the Region, including US, UK, France, Germany and Turkey as well the European Union representative and UNAMI, discussing his party’s boycott.
The KDP has bragged about the Region’s democracy and coexistence and projected itself as the main owner of the enclave. No matter what decision the party makes in the future and how the political and financial issues evolve, the key things the public wants from all politicians is security, peace, and financial stability.