ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The Middle East has been on alert for an Iranian response since a suspected Israeli attack on Iran’s embassy in Syria earlier this month, with European powers urging restraint as German airline Lufthansa extended its suspension of flights to and from Tehran on Thursday.
Following an attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1, which Tehran blamed on Israel, the former vowed to retaliate and punish them for the strikes which killed two top generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Israel has been carrying out strikes targeting Iranian militia-affiliated positions as well as Lebanese Hezbollah in both Syria and Lebanon on an almost daily basis since the war in Gaza broke out on October 7, with Israel launching its deadliest attack in Syria to date late last month, killing 52, including 28 regime soldiers and seven Hezbollah members. Since October 7 the region has been on the verge of an all-out conflict numerous times but the embassy attack has raised tension to new levels and the stakes are arguably at their highest point since the beginning of Israel’s war on Gaza.
Amid escalating tension, Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency stated on X that Iran had suspended air traffic over the capital due to “military drills,” citing the country’s defense minister. The post was then deleted and the agency denied having published it.
Since Wednesday, Israel and the US have been on alert of an Iranian attack. Citing sources familiar with US and Israeli intelligence assessments, Bloomberg reported that Washington believes Iran will launch strikes targeting military and government sites in Israel. Separately, American news website Axios said that US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander General Michael “Erik” Kurilla was expected to visit Israel on Thursday to discuss the threat of Tehran’s retaliation with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday vowed to punish Israel during his Eid prayer sermon.
“The evil regime made a mistake and must be punished and will be punished… The consulate and embassy facilities in any country that exists is considered to be the territory of that country. When they attack our consulate, it means our territory has been attacked,” he said.
Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz then took to X, former Twitter, on Wednesday, to warn Iran that it would respond to any attack, also mentioning Khamenei in the post.
“If Iran attacks from its territory - Israel will respond and attack in Iran,” Katz said, in both Hebrew and Farsi.
Later, US President Joe Biden reiterated Washington’s support for Israel in the face of a potential attack from Iran or its proxies in the region.
“As I told Prime Minister Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad. Let me say it again: ironclad.” Biden said in a joint press briefing Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio.
“We’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security,” he reiterated.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also underscored American support for Israel during a phone call with Gallant, saying Washington would stand by them against threats from Iran.
Meanwhile, Russia and Germany said escalation between Iran and Israel should be avoided.
"It is extremely important today for everyone to show restraint in order to avoid a complete destabilization of the situation in the region, which already does not shine with stability and predictability," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Thursday, as cited by Russian state media, calling on countries in the region to exercise restraint.
Germany’s foreign minister also urged caution in the region as tension rises.
"These days, all diplomatic telephone lines are buzzing to prevent a regional escalation in the Middle East. Nobody should add fuel to the fire now. Truly, nobody can have an interest in a conflagration with completely unpredictable consequences,” Annalena Baerbock told reporters in Berlin on Thursday.
The German foreign ministry also said that Baerbock had spoken to Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian about the tension in the Middle East.
.@ABaerbock spoke on the phone with the Iranian Foreign Minister about the tense situation in the Middle East today. Avoiding further regional escalation must be in everyone’s interest. We urge all actors in the region to act responsibly and exercise maximum restraint.
— GermanForeignOffice (@GermanyDiplo) April 11, 2024
Germany’s Lufthansa airline on Thursday said it extended its suspension on flights to and from Tehran until Saturday over concerns sparked by rising tension in the region.
Soaring tension since October 7
Seven members of the IRGC, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the Quds Force (IRGC-QF) head in Syria and Lebanon, were killed in the strike which hit the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus.
Since the attack, Iranian leaders and officials have repeatedly vowed to retaliate but no action has been taken yet. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a network of shadow Iraqi militia groups affiliated with the IRGC has claimed to have targeted the southern Israeli city of Eilat multiple times but no factual evidence has been provided by either the group or Israel.
Amir-Abdollahian has had multiple phone calls over the past 24 hours about the situation in the region, speaking to his counterparts in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar, seen by observers as a possible indication of imminent Iranian action.
While Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus it is believed to be behind hundreds of airstrikes carried out on regime-controlled areas of Syria since civil war broke out in the country in 2011. Tel Aviv rarely claims responsibility for attacks but it has recently acknowledged several strikes which have killed militia and Hezbollah members in Syria, as well as neighboring Lebanon.
Clashes between Hezbollah and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have intensified over the past months, with attacks becoming more frequent and deeper into Lebanese territory, raising concerns of all-out war between Israel and Lebanon.
Since October 7, when Israel launched its war on Gaza following the Hamas attack on its territory, global attention has been on the Middle East with international concern of escalation rising in response to developments in the region. Since October 17, Iranian-backed militia groups launched numerous attacks on US bases in the region over Washington’s support of Israel in its war on Gaza. Proxy attacks on American bases have however stopped since US retaliatory attacks on militia groups in Syria and Iraq in February.