The current period in the Middle East has come to be described as a post October 7 era, a reference to the date when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, leading to a deadly Israeli war on Gaza which rages on, and which has resulted in the exacerbation of previously existing fault lines.
The eighth annual edition of the Sulaimani Forum convened on April 17 and 18, just days after Iran launched a retaliatory attack targeting Israeli territory on Saturday night, engaging hundreds of drones and missiles. The event took place at a key time for policymakers and experts to discuss the most pressing challenges the region is currently embroiled in.
The forum, organized by the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS), took place at its resident American University of Iraq, Sulaimani (AUIS) and was attended by key officials including Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) leader Bafel Talabani, Shiite cleric and head of Iraq's National Wisdom Movement Ammar al-Hakim, the Region’s Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani, as well as a number of Iraqi ministers.
“In a year defined by regional conflict and tensions, it is important for policymakers, researchers and activists to have opportunities for direct engagement and dialogue,” read the press release issued by the forum.
"We have witnessed a constant escalation of threats and violence in the Middle East since long time, not only since 7 October,” European Union ambassador to Iraq Thomas Seiler said ahead of his participation in the forum, adding that peace in the region cannot be achieved without a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In the shadow of the war in Gaza
As noted by former Iraqi president and founder of the Sulaimani Forum, Barham Salih, these discussions come at a time when the Middle East is at a critical juncture, and Iraq is particularly susceptible to the geopolitical tension between regional powers.
“Iraq needs foremost to protect itself from getting sucked into this dynamic through consolidating its internal unity, enhancing state authority, and making sure its national interest is the prevalent consideration,” he said in his speech on Wednesday which kicked off the event.
“The Sulaimani Forum is taking place amidst a highly delicate regional and global context. Intense conflicts and heightened tensions have permeated the Middle East,” President Barzani said in his keynote address, also touching upon the general mood in the region.
Almost 34,000 people have been killed in Israeli airstrikes in Gaza since October 7, reopening the discussion of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“The Kurdistan Region supports the establishment of an independent Palestinian state as the only viable path to lasting peace,” Barzani affirmed.
“We witness the disasters in Palestine with great pain. We call on the [UN] Security Council to end this war immediately,” Hakim also said in his address at the forum.
“October 7 changed everything in the region. Everyone has been affected by what happened then and what happened subsequently,” former UK Minister of State for the Middle East Alistair Burt said.
Iran launched a massive aerial assault consisting of drones as well as cruise and ballistic missiles towards Israel in the late hours of Saturday night, marking the culmination of repeated threats over the past two weeks by Tehran to retaliate for an attack on its embassy in Damascus. Iran accused Israel of being behind the attack despite the latter never claiming responsibility for it.
“Israel would target Iranian interests in Syria” and while it would not “directly claim responsibility for these strikes,” they have all been strong messages to Iran, Hakim said.
“Many of us did not expect a direct Iranian response from their lands, but a response came with a large number of ballistic missiles and drones,” Hakim stated, stressing that nevertheless, the goal was not to escalate tensions but to send a message to Israel.
Iran has woven an intricate network of alliances under the umbrella of the Axis of Resistance through conflict and has evolved over time as Tehran has been increasingly sanctioned by the West. Iran’s isolation has made it more reliant on the Axis and has pushed it to invest more in regional relations, argued Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
“Too often, we approach Iran as a static actor, and as we saw a few days ago, Iran behaved quite differently, and that helps us change our model,” Vakil said.
Zooming in on domestic challenges
In addition to the regional landscape, the challenges faced by Iraq and the Kurdistan Region also dominated the talks, ranging from issues between Erbil and Baghdad, to internal Kurdish political issues, to the threat climate change poses for the country.
With regards to economic issues, Qubad Talabani said the Kurdistan Region was not able to “find a balance between policymaking and implementation.”
“Iraq and the Kurdistan Region need a clear economic philosophy. It is currently unknown,” he added.
Kurdish authorities routinely blame their Iraqi counterparts for refusing to implement a federal system in the country as stipulated by the constitution and accuse Iraqi authorities of centralizing power around Baghdad - moves which undermine Kurdish autonomy and the core presence of the Kurdistan Region in the country.
“According to the Iraqi constitution, there is no such thing as a ‘central government.’ According to the Iraqi constitution, there is a federal government. The term ‘central’ is used nowhere in the Iraqi constitution,” stated Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Minister of Interior Reber Ahmed, calling on Iraqi and Kurdish politicians as well as news outlets to refrain from using the expression.
“A strong Iraq needs the existence of a strong Kurdistan Region,” President Barzani affirmed, adding that the converse is also true. “The Kurdistan parliament is an excellent example in the region. We must protect it,” he continued, praising the Kurdistan Region’s institutions as well as the Peshmerga forces.
The ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and PUK are long-time rivals that have a tenuous power-sharing agreement. Tensions between them have been high for nearly two years over a variety of issues, including distribution of funds to provinces and the transparency of revenue in their areas of control.
Long overdue parliamentary elections have been scheduled for June 10 after several delays. However, the KDP’s decision not to participate in the elections, citing its dissatisfaction with rulings from the Iraqi top court, has sparked concerns that the vote may not take place.
Bafel Talabani told reporters on the sidelines of the forum that the elections would indeed go ahead as scheduled.
Climate change, aid to Iraq
Iraq is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, including through water and food insecurity, according to the United Nations. It is currently facing a severe water shortage because of reduced precipitation, higher temperatures, and waste and mismanagement. The crisis is worsened by the building of upstream dams in Turkey and Iran which have led to a significant decrease in the volume of water entering the country.
Iraqi Minister of Water Resources Aoun Diab stated that 90 percent of water from the Euphrates as well as the majority of the water from the Tigris river come from Turkey, stating that Iran does not present as big of a challenge in terms of water security.
Sameh al-Muqdadi, senior fellow of water policy at IRIS stated that the priorities related to climate change in the Kurdistan Region are different to those in Iraq.
“The Iraqi government knew that Basra’s water is being polluted, yet no action has been taken and [this] has resulted in more than 100,000 inhabitants who were hospitalized,” said Sarine Karajerjian, program director of environmental politics at the Arab Reform Initiative.
“This is a public health issue,” she stated.
The recent floods in Erbil are not a direct effect of climate change but rather of poor urban planning, al-Muqdadi argued.
Foreign officials working in Iraq expressed their frustration with the humanitarian situation in the country and the lack of efforts taken by Iraqi authorities to address the climate change threat.
“We have shifted completely in Iraq to development aid. I think this is a rich country. Why do we need to pay 400 million euros to Iraq when the money is here?” Seiler questioned, adding that the EU has typically been a “payer and not a player” but that this was about to change.
“We see enormous disrespect for international humanitarian law, international humanitarian principles, and state and non-state actors are violating it,” stated Ghulam Mohammed Isaczai, the UN’s Deputy Special Representative for Iraq.
“Humanitarian aid and development aid is not the solution. We have to emphasize national ownership,” he added.