ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - A former US diplomat on Sunday said that it is “unknown” whether the Israel-Iran conflict will affect the Kurdistan Region, especially with previous attacks on the Region by Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups.
“I'd say we're in a period right now of enormous uncertainty. Uncertainty as to the scope of the military campaign, uncertainty as to how Iran will react beyond these initial volleys of missiles, and uncertainty as to how the US administration will work or not to contain this conflict,” Former US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf told Rudaw.
“I wish I could give you a certain answer that this conflict will not affect Iraqi Kurdistan, but I think that is, again, one of the many unknowns. We've seen before, unfortunately, Iraqi militias at times of heightened tension between Israel and other countries, we've seen these militias do attacks within or on Iraqi Kurdistan,” she added.
Tensions escalated between Tel Aviv and Tehran on Friday when Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran, targeting its nuclear and military facilities while killing several top military commanders and nuclear scientists. Since the attack, the two sides have launched salvos of missiles at each other.
Iraq has tried to stay out of the conflict, rejecting its airspace being used for launching attacks.
Leaf said the most important thing for Iraq at this time is to make sure no US personnel or facilities are attacked on its soil, citing warnings from US President Donald Trump that it would have severe repercussions for Iran itself.
“I think the messaging that Iraq is not part of this conflict is probably the important public message, but it's what Iraq does on the ground as the government that will be quite important to ensure that no actors attempt to attack Americans or other Westerners,” she said.
The US diplomat highlighted Iran’s “diminished capabilities” but stressed that it should not be underestimated as the country has “a long historical record of other means to go after a country,” like assassinations and attacks on embassies. “I think we're in a zone of great uncertainty,” she stated.
Washington and Tehran were in talks on Iran’s uranium program - mediated by Oman - which halted after the Friday attacks. The US has warned of severe consequences if Iran attacks US assets.
The stakes are high for Iraq, which hosts both US forces and powerful Iran-backed armed groups. Any retaliatory strike launched from its soil could provoke devastating responses, which could undermine its sovereignty and threaten the country’s fragile stability, as it is still recovering from decades of war.
