ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - As global powers reduce their involvement, regional players are shaping the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape, with rising risks of escalation and growing competition, said a retired French Navy admiral and analyst on Wednesday.
Pascal Ausseur, a retired French Navy admiral and Director General of the Mediterranean Center for Strategic Studies, said at the Erbil Forum that regional powers are shaping the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape as global powers reduce their involvement.
“It gives room for medium-sized powers, regional powers,” he said, identifying Turkey, Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia as key players due to their strong state structures.
“There will be a regional power game between these four countries, and the risk is that others could suffer from it,” he added.
Regional power dynamics
Turkey cut ties with Damascus in 2011 over Bashar al-Assad’s crackdown on protests, backing rebels and launching military operations, including against Kurdish forces in Afrin in 2018. It now offers Syria’s new government military and logistical support. In January, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Assad’s fall was a victory for both Syria and Turkey.
Saudi Arabia initially supported the Syrian opposition but has since restored ties with Damascus, aligning with regional efforts for a political resolution. The kingdom has also been providing humanitarian aid to Syria. In late January, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan visited Damascus and said during a presser that the kingdom is seeking to help lift international sanctions on the war-ravaged Syria. Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic ties with Assad’s Syria last year and supported its return to the Arab League, 11 years after Riyadh severed ties with Damascus and backed Syrian rebels during the onset of the country’s brutal civil war.
Iran was a major backer of the Syrian government, providing military and financial support. While its influence has faced challenges, Tehran remains engaged in diplomacy to secure its regional interests.
Israel has conducted strikes in Syria targeting Iranian and Hezbollah positions. Following shifts in Syria’s leadership, it has reinforced security in the south, rejecting calls for withdrawal while maintaining operations against perceived threats.
Ausseur warned that tensions between these four powers could escalate into a wider crisis. “France will try to manage and avoid escalation because an increase in tensions between Israel, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia would be a nightmare.”
France and the role of the West
France has supported Kurdish political inclusion in Syria, advocating for minority representation in governance. It remains engaged with Kurdish groups and backs efforts to ensure their participation in Syria’s future. As part of the US-led coalition, France maintains a military presence in northeast Syria and continues cooperation with Kurdish forces in the fight against the Islamic State [ISIS]. It has voiced concerns over escalating tensions in Kurdish-held areas and called for stability.
“European countries, including France, have their own problems... we will be less involved,” Ausseur said. “Instability here will be bad for everybody, bad for the region, bad for Europe, and bad for France.”
The US has also adjusted its approach in Syria. Its troop presence remains in the northeast to support local forces against ISIS, but humanitarian assistance has faced disruptions. The suspension of foreign aid under the Trump administration impacted services in camps like al-Hol, which houses around 40,000 residents with ties to ISIS.
Meanwhile, Russia remains engaged with Damascus. Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed support for Syria’s government in a phone call with interim leader Ahmad al-Sharaa. In a meeting with a senior Russian delegation in January, Sharaa said Moscow must address past mistakes for ties to be fully restored.
Ausseur said that as the US presence declines and the EU shifts focus, “there will be room for regional powers” to shape Syria’s future.
Muzaffer Akyildirim, a retired Turkish military officer and diplomat, also during the panel discussion, said that Turkey has over a century of regional experience as a democratic state.
“Turkey’s development is directly tied to the region’s progress,” he said. “If we invest and grow together, we will succeed together.”
