LONDON, United Kingdom - The Iran-backed Coordination Framework’s relatively good performance in government has ensured high approval ratings among the Iraqi public and allowed them to consolidate power, making a defeat difficult in the next Iraqi elections, a prominent analyst said on Wednesday.
Iraq will hold parliamentary elections in 2025. The voting cycle will come amid a weakened Kurdish and Sunni position in Baghdad as the Coordination Framework has consolidated power as the leading Shiite force, making an effective return of influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr difficult.
Analysts, officials, and former Iraqi prime minister Haider al-Abadi discussed the next Iraqi elections at the Iraq Initiative Conference organized by Chatham House in London. During the session, they agreed that the current government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani has enjoyed high approval ratings, helped by high oil prices which have facilitated the rapid development of infrastructure in the country.
“I think that people are pleasantly surprised that the Coordination Framework has managed to maintain stability in the past two years,” said Sajad Jiyad, a fellow at the Century International think tank and director of the Shia Politics Working Group, explaining that it will be hard to dislodge the Framework from power as the Shiite force increasingly consolidates power over Iraqi institutions.
He stated that a Sadrist return to power would be difficult as the cleric lacks the proper cards to use against the Framework to captivate the Iraqi street in his support, adding that the Framework has further diminished that possibility by “punishing” partners of Sadr in his attempt to form a “national majority” government after the last Iraqi elections – referring to the Sunni alliance led by removed parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP).
“It’s very natural to expect the Coordination Framework to use the numerical advantage in parliament for their benefits,” Jiyad explained.
But the analyst said that Sudani “represents a threat” to the Shiite alliance, with his strong popularity and intention to continue as prime minister putting senior leaders of the alliance at unease.
After Sadr’s victory in the 2021 Iraqi parliamentary elections, his bloc entered into an alliance with the KDP and the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance in a bid to form a “national majority” government, which would exclude the remaining parties and put them as opposition.
After multiple futile attempts, Sadr announced his withdrawal from politics and ordered all of his MPs to resign from the legislature, paving the way for the Coordination Framework to take over and form the government.
The Coordination Framework also had the KDP’s governing partner in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and political rival the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) on its side.
Amanj Harki, a KDP lawmaker in the Iraqi parliament, downplayed the chances of the Coordination Framework in attempting to isolate the Kurdish party, saying the Shiite force “would not dare” to do so as such a maneuver would lack international popularity.
“KDP means KRG. KRG means a pivotal point in the Iraqi system. They would not dare to even dare about punishment. They tried, they failed, and they will keep failing, because there is no political future in the international arena without the KDP and the KRG,” Ali told Rudaw English on the sidelines of the Chatham House conference in London.
Ali stressed that the KDP is the main backer of the Kurdish voice in federal Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, and that the PUK significantly lags behind in that regard.
“The recent elections in the KRG – they put everything that they have in their hands to put pressure on KDP not to win and not to get seats, but they got more seats and more people support,” Ali stated, stressing that the Iran-backed influence of the PUK fails to dislodge the KDP.
Former premier Abadi warned against steering Iraq into instability and meddling in Iraqi affairs, as global policies change with the return of Donald Trump to the White House.
“I say it is wrong to deal with Iraq as a marginal country, and it is also wrong, and a sin, to structurally link Iraq to thorny regional issues such as the Iranian issue or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” Abadi stressed.
He lamented that Baghdad is paying the price for the regional conflicts by being an arena used for settling scores, and that the simmering regional tensions against the backdrop of the Israel-Gaza war and its spillover into Lebanon are causing “intense conflict” inside Iraq.
“Dealing with Iraq on the basis of the failed state model is a strategy which is a strategic sin, not only against Iraq but against the region and the whole Middle East,” Abadi said.
However, a senior research fellow at Chatham House said that Iraq has fared well from the conflict in the Middle East.
“Relative to other countries, its neighbors in the region, Iraq has thus far been insulated from the conflict,” said Renad Mansour.
He added that the Iraqi system is set up in a way to “prevent the consolidation of power” and promote fragmentation, so that no single entity gains dominance over the political scene.
Falah Mustafa, special assistant to Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani, called for a swift formation of the next Kurdish government to begin to address pressing issues in the Region.
“Still, they believe there is a chance for improving the situation and that is the right way to go about,” said Mustafa about the recent Kurdish vote.
He praised the visit of Sudani to Erbil last week as a clear sign of improving ties between Erbil and Baghdad.
“Erbil and Baghdad relation is key for the stability of the country,” Mustafa stressed. “Iraq needs to live in peace with its communities.”
