Kurds fear recent demographic changes taint Kirkuk census

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - A Kurdish member of Kirkuk’s provincial council is concerned that Iraq’s census is premature and could be tainted by new settlers in the province, which is given special treatment under the constitution because of its multi-ethnic and disputed status.

“As you know article 140 [of the constitution] has steps, resolution and then census. They are doing a census without implementing a resolution,” Hasan Majid, head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) bloc on the council, told Rudaw’s Sangar Abdulrahman.

Kirkuk, along with other disputed territories in Diyala, Nineveh, and Salahaddin, has a diverse population and was subject to Arabization policies under Saddam Hussein’s rule, where Kurdish inhabitants were displaced and their lands given to Arab settlers. Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution outlines a process for resolving disputes over these territories. It begins with compensation for Arab settlers and the return of lands to displaced Kurdish landowners.

Following these steps, a census and referendum are to be held to give inhabitants the choice of joining the Kurdistan Region or remaining under Baghdad’s control. The deadline for this process was 2007, but it remains unresolved.

Kirkuk was jointly administered by Erbil and Baghdad until 2014 when Peshmerga forces took control after the Iraqi army withdrew in the face of the Islamic State (ISIS). In 2017, following the Kurdish independence referendum, Iraqi forces re-entered Kirkuk and expelled the Peshmerga.

Majid said that conducting a census is necessary, but only when done in a fair way and following the constitutionally mandated steps.

There still exist disputes over Arab settlers and land ownership.

Kaka Rash Siddiq, head of Kirkuk's office for implementation of Article 140, said in August that thousands of Arabs who had received financial and land compensation from the Iraqi government chose to remain in the province. He blamed the previous provincial administration, which he said supported the Arab population who stayed despite being compensated.

Rakan al-Jabouri, who had served as acting governor of Kirkuk from 2017 until last month, has faced accusations of trying to revive Baathist-era Arabization policies and weaken the Kurdish population, though others have commended him for revitalizing neglected Arab neighborhoods.

Provincial council member Majid said multiple new neighbourhoods were built in Kirkuk during Jabouri’s time in office.

“Nine Arab neighborhoods were built after October 16 [2017]. All are from outside the city and are settlers who have come to the city,” he said.

He claimed that 50,000 Arabs have newly settled in Kirkuk.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is also concerned that recent population changes could affect the census.

On Friday, Karwan Adil Kamarkhan, head of the Kirkuk office of the KRG’s board for disputed territories, stated that around 300,000 Arabs and Turkmens have settled in the province since October 2017.

Kamarkhan urged Kirkukis who no longer reside in the province to return before October 5 to be counted in the first stage of the census and warned that they may otherwise not be included in the Kurdish population count for Kirkuk.

Kirkuk’s Kurdish population is expected to have significantly decreased after the Baath regime's Arabization process and the ousting of the Peshmerga in October 2017. In the 1957 census, Kurds made up 48 percent of Kirkuk's population, Arabs 28 percent, and Turkmen 21 percent. Majid argued that censuses done after 1957, during times of Arabization and conflict, were unreliable.

The first stage of Iraq's national census, which began on September 1, involves surveying buildings and counting the population along with household members. This phase is expected to be completed by October 30. The second stage, starting on October 20, will gather more detailed information from each household.

Missing the first stage means exclusion from the second phase.

The most recent population census, conducted in 1997, recorded 19 million Iraqis, with a separate count estimating the population of the Kurdish provinces at 2.8 million. Iraq’s total population is now an estimated 51 million.

Kurds fear recent demographic changes taint Kirkuk census

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